Geophysical research: article

G.N. Kopylova 1 Yu.K. Serafimova 1 A.A. Lyubushin 2
1 Kamchatka Branch of Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia 2 Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences
Journal: Geophysical research
Tome: 24
Number: 3
Year: 2023
Pages: 30-51
UDK: 550.34
DOI: 10.21455/gr2023.3-2
Full text
Keywords: air temperature, atmospheric pressure, time series, meteorological anomalies, earthquake, shaking intensity, pre-cursors, earthquake forecast.
Аnnotation: Based on the data of long-term (1962–2020) observations of air temperature and atmospheric pressure at two meteorological stations in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky city (Kamchatksky Krai), hypotheses are analyzed about the relationship between increased and decreased values of meteorological parameters as well as their contrast changes with the final stage of preparation of local earthquakes with magnitudes 5.2–8.3, which occurred at epicentral distances of 22–440 km and caused perceptible shaking with intensity of IMSK-64≥45 points. To identify meteorological anomalies, an empirical method was used to compare the average daily air temperatures and atmospheric pressure with the average daily values of their annual average seasonal functions as well as a formalized method for estimating the minimum normalized entropy En, the logarithm of the kurtosis coefficient lg, and the autoregressive measure of nonstationarity Q2 of the time series of air temperature and atmospheric pressure in a sliding time window with a duration of 112 days with a step of 1 day. Various types of meteorological anomalies before earthquakes were studied at time intervals of 7 and 30 days. The relationship between the identified anomalies and subsequent earthquakes was carried out according to the ratio of the reliability and validity values of a conditional meteorological precursor. A predominantly random nature of the manifestation of various types of meteorological anomalies before earthquakes was found. The absence of a pronounced relationship between an increase in air temperature and subsequent earthquakes casts doubt on the feasibility of the mechanism of generation of thermal near-surface anomalies before earthquakes within the model of complex relationships in the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere–magnetosphere (LAIMC) system for the region under consideration. The proposed methods for analyzing meteorological data can be used in works on seismic forecasting in the area of Petropavlovsk-Yelizovo agglomeration of the Kamchatksky Krai for diagnosing weather dependent anomalies in the ground-based observational data.
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