PROBLEMS OF SHORT-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION: A FORMAL ASPECT
Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of RAS
Journal: Science and technological developments
Keywords: short-term earthquake prediction, geophysical methods, error of the first kind, false alarm, self-organized criticality
Аnnotation: The formal arguments given by seismologists to justify the impossibility of developing a method of short-term earthquake prediction based on geophysical methods are considered in detail. Concrete examples show the danger of the practical use of mathematical theories and approaches that do not have a physical basis. The paper shows the inconsistency of all formal arguments of seismologists about the impossibility and uselessness of a short-term earthquake prediction. It is concluded that it is necessary to remove all responsibility from seismologists for the development of a short-term earthquake prediction method due to the impossibility of solving this problem by using only seismological methods. Only a multidisciplinary approach to solving the problem of earthquake prediction with the widespread use of various geophysical methods can give successful results.