EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION: OLD ANTICIPATIONS AND NEW RESULTS
1 Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences 2 Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Far Eastern Branch
Journal: Science and technological developments
Keywords: earthquake forecast, algorithms, system stability, physical mechanism, fluid metamorphogenic mechanism of earthquakes
Аnnotation: A significant part of modern earthquake prediction algorithms are based on general signs of loss of stability by the system, without reference to the physical mechanism of the development of seismic instability. Considerations have been repeatedly expressed that such an approach is unlikely to lead to a completely satisfactory forecast. New geophysical evidence in favor of a fluid metamorphogenic model of the earthquake mechanism and data on the typical nature of the precursor seismic process are presented. The use of these new data for earthquake prediction is discussed.