Science and technological developments: article

A.A. Lyubushin 1 V.P. Matyunin 1 I.I. Kalinnikov 1 V.I. Isachenko 2 A.B. Manukin 1
1 Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences 2 Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences
Journal: Science and technological developments
Tome: 103
Number: 1
Year: 2024
Pages: 19-35
UDK: 550.34
DOI: 10.21455/std2024.1-2
Full text
Keywords: horizontal torsion pendulum, coherence, seismic events, influence matrices
Аnnotation: Synchronous recordings of the readings of two torsion pendulums located at a distance of about 3000 km from each other are considered: in the village Mosrentgen (New Moscow) and Novosibirsk. The duration of joint rec-ords is 350 days, from 19.08.2022 to 04.08.2023. The hypothesis is considered that the excitation of oscillations of torsional pendulums precedes strong seismic events, including those whose epicenters are located far from the location of measurements. The presence of two synchronous measurement points makes it possible to get rid of the influence of intense local interference by assessing the coherence spectrum in a sliding time window. The se-quence of times of occurrence of maximum coherences in time windows of 1 hour length is analyzed together with the sequence of seismic events with a magnitude of at least 5 using a parametric model of interacting point processes (influence matrix method). The influence matrix method allows you to give a quantitative measure of the influence of two random time sequences on each other. The assessment of the correlation function between the daily values of the logarithms of seismic energy emissions exceeding a given threshold and the daily average maximum values of the elements of the influence matrix has a strong asymmetry, which gives grounds for quantitative confirmation of the hypothesis that the excitation of torsion pendulums precedes strong earth-quakes with an average delay time of about 20 days.
Bibliography: Ayvazyan, S.A., Bukhshtaber, V.M., Enyukov, I.S., Meshalkin, L.D., Prikladnaya statistika. Klassifikatsiya i snizhenie razmernosti (Applied Statistics. Classification and Dimensionality Reduction), Moscow, Finance and Statistics, 1989, 607 p.

Braginsky, V.B., Manukin, A.B., Izmerenie malykh sil v fizicheskikh eksperimentakh (Measuring Small Forces in Physical Experiments), Moscow, Nauka, 1974, 151 p.

Cox, D.R., Lewis, P.A.W., The Statistical Analysis of Series of Events, Springer, 1966, 285 p.

Kalinnikov, I.I., Konservativnye sistemy dlya geofizicheskikh issledovanii (Conservative Systems for Geophysical Research), Moscow, Nauka, 1983, 127 p.

Kalinnikov, I.I., Horizontal torsion balance – geophone with a multi-lobe radiation pattern, Dokl. AN SSSR (Proc. USSR Acad. Sci.), 1991a, vol. 317, no. 4, pp. 868–872. [in Russian].

Kalinnikov, I.I., On the development of a torsional seismometer for measuring low-frequency improper torsional vibrations of the Earth, Fizika Zemli (Physics of the Earth), 1991b, no. 5, pp. 67–78. [in Russian].

Kalinnikov, I.I., Matyunin, V.P., Nyunina, N.A., Getmanskaya, V.V., Operational forecast of earthquakes in the teleseismic zone is a reality, Dokl. Akademii nauk (Proc. Rus. Acad. Sci.), 1992, vol. 323, no. 6, pp. 1068–1071. [in Russian].

Kalinnikov, I.I., Matyunin, V.P., Nyunina, N.A., The property of weakly damped torsion bal-ances with a vertical suspension thread, Fizika Zemli (Physics of the Earth), 1994, no. 4, pp. 41–54. [in Russian].

Kalinnikov, I.I., Manukin, A.B., Koneshov, V.N., Matyunin, V.P., Karagioz, O.V., Vol’fson, G.B., Investigation of variable gravitational gradients and specific features of the micro-seismic background with a torsion balance, Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2011, vol. 47, iss. 5, pp. 456–463.

Kalinnikov, I.I., Manukin, A.B., Matyunin, V.P., Earthquakes and forecast reliability: Thermoac-tivation and mesomechanics of the focal zone, Dokl. Earth Sci., 2017, vol. 474, iss. 2, pp. 646–648.

Krylov, S.M., Sobolev, G.A., On vortex gravitational fields of natural and artificial origin and their wave properties, Vulkanologiya i seismologiya (Volcanology and Seismology), 1998, no. 3, pp. 78–92. [in Russian].

Lyubushin, A., Low-frequency seismic noise properties in the Japanese Islands, Entropy, 2021, vol. 23, iss. 4, art. 474, 17 p.

Lyubushin, A., Investigation of the global seismic noise properties in connection to strong earthquakes, Front. Earth Sci., 2022, vol. 10, art. 905663, 15 p.


Lyubushin, A.A., Pisarenko, V.F., Research on seismic regime using linear model of intensity of interacting point processes, Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 1994, vol. 29, no. 12, pp. 1108–1113.

Lyubushin, A.A., Pisarenko, V.F., Ruzhich, V.V., Buddo, V.Yu., Identification of periodicities in seismic mode, Vulkanologiya i seismologiya (Volcanology and Seismology), 1998, no. 1, pp. 62–76. [in Russian].

Lyubushin, A.A., Kopylova, G.N., Kasimova, V.A., Taranova, L.N., Multifractal and entropy statistics of seismic noise in Kamchatka in connection with the strongest earthquakes, Komp’yuternye issledovaniya i modelirovanie (Computer Research and Modeling), 2023, vol. 15, no. 6, pp. 1507–1521. [in Russian].

Marple, S.L., Digital Spectral Analysis with Applications, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, Prentice-Hall, 1987, 492 p.

Martynov, O.V., The natural accidents forecasting system concept and the practical results, ob-tained from nonlinear physics, mathematics and system data, Nelineinyi mir (Nonlinear World), 2008, vol. 6, no. 10, pp. 579–615. [in Russian].

Martynov, O.V., Shopin, S.A., Semenov, L.L., Ivanov, V.I., Skobel’tsyn, S.A., Shopin, V.A., Monitoring of energy processes of natural disasters preparation and realization by the multi-channel system of wideband gradiometers, Izvestiya TulGU. Nauki o Zemle (Proceedings of Tula State University. Earth Sciences), 2010, iss. 1, pp. 32–43. [in Russian].

Rao, C.R., Linear Statistical Inference and Its Applications, New York, John Wiley & Sons, 1965, 522 p.

Shopin, S.A., Equations of motion of horizontal torsion balance at small pendular oscillations, Izvestiya TulGU. Estestvennye nauki (Proceedings of Tula State University. Natural Scienc-es), 2011, iss. 1, pp. 155–166. [in Russian].

Vol’fson, G.B., Evstifeev, M.I., Kazantseva, O.S., Kalinnikov, I.I., Manukin, A.B., Matyunin, V.P., Shcherbak, A.G., Gradiometric seismoreceiver with a magnetic suspension in the prob-lems of operative earthquake forecasting, Seismic Instruments, 2010, vol. 46, iss. 3, pp. 265–274.

Zenkov, V.S., Kalinnikov, I.I., Nyunin, M.I., Nyunina, N.A. Sinyakova, V.F., Equivalent noise temperature in laboratory and earthquakes, Dokl. AN SSSR (Proc. USSR Acad. Sci.), 1978, vol. 239, no. 1, pp. 74–76. [in Russian].

Zenkov, V.S., Kalinnikov, I.I., Nyunin, M.I., Operational forecast of strong earthquakes, Dokl. AN SSSR (Proc. USSR Acad. Sci.), 1980, vol. 254, no. 2, pp. 325–327. [in Russian].