PROBLEMS OF SHORT-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION: A CONTENT-RELATED ASPECT
Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of RAS, Russia, 123242, Moscow, ul. Bolshaya Gruzinskaya 10, stroenie 1
Journal: Science and technological developments
Keywords: SHORT-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION, GEOPHYSICAL METHODS, FALSE ALARM, ERROR OF OMISSION
Аnnotation: It is shown that the crisis in the short-term earthquake prediction is caused by an erroneous hypothesis about the source of the precursor signal in the earthquake source. To get out of the crisis, a paradigm change was proposed for developing a short-term prediction based on convincing experimental evidence of the local nature of the most reliable geophysical precursors; hypotheses about the significant influence of fracturing of the Earth's crust on the process of earthquake nucleation and the manifestation of short-term precursors; Dobrovolsky's consolidation theory; Zhurkov's theory of kinetic strength and avalanche unstable fracturing formation theory. Within the framework of the new paradigm, all the main regularities in the manifestation of the most reliable short-term precursors of earthquakes have been sufficiently fully and simply explained, and an approach to the a priori formalized separation of the field component associated with the SES and the precursor anomaly has been proposed. A technology is proposed for the development of a method for monitoring SES based on controlled impacts on a fractured rock mass, independent of the seismic process. A hypothesis has been put forward that the transit, asynchronous and mosaic manifestation of short-term precursors of earthquakes is caused by the propagation of a wave of plastic deformation caused by the separation of the consolidated heterogeneity into the outer and inner parts as a result of the concentration of cracks in the vicinity of the future rupture at the short-term stage of the nucleation of a tectonic earthquake source. It is concluded that, provided that the hypothesis of a significant influence of fracturing of the Earth's crust on the process of earthquake nucleation and the manifestation of short-term precursors is valid, seismology cannot offer suitable for practical use alternatives to short-term prediction based on geophysical methods.