Geophysical processes and biosphere: article

Аnnotation: The characteristics of the ring-shaped seismicity structures, being formed in the subduction zone of New Zealand are considered. Ring-shaped structures in the depth ranges of 0–33, 34–70 and 71–110 km with threshold magnitude values of 5.1, 5.0 and 4.6 respectively were picked out. It is supposed by analogy with earlier obtained data for subduction zones in the west and east of Pacific ocean that ring-shaped structures formation testifies to the large earthquake preparation. Using correlation dependences of threshold magnitude values from energy of large and great earthquakes in the west of Pacific ocean allowed us to receive an estimation of magnitude of an upcoming great seismic event in the region of New Zealand: Mw = 8.4±0.2. Literature data analysis shows that various geological-geophysical characteristics of the subduction zones in the regions of north-eastern Japan and North Island of New Zealand have similar features. At the same time obtained magnitude estimation of the possible great event in the region of New Zealand is lower essentially than magnitude of the Great Tohoku earthquake of 11.03.2011 (Mw = 9.0), occurred to the east of Honsu Island. Taking into account a correlation of the threshold magnitude values at different depths we made a conclusion about bigger probability of a preparation of relatively shallow large earthquake in the region of New Zealand.