Geophysical processes and biosphere: article

Аnnotation: This article continues the series of scientific articles devoted to the modification of the «Map of ex-pected earthquakes» (MEE) method of medium-term earthquake forecasting. The addresses the cal-culation and analysis of retrospective statistical characteristics of dynamic and quasi-stationary prognostic features used at this stage in the modernized MEE method for the Kamchatka region. The regional catalog of Kamchatka earthquakes for the period from 1962 to 2020 was used for cal-culations. We predicted earthquakes with Ktag ≥ 13.5. One of the most effective precursors for Kamchatka region both in time and area is the slope of the recurrence rate γ with Jt = 10.7 and JS = 11.3. The next most effective (in time) is the number of earthquakes Neq in quiescence with Jt = 5.8. The most effective precursor in terms of area is derived seismic energy E2/3 also in quies-cence with JS = 14.7. We calculated the value of unconditional probability P(D1) of strong earth-quake by complex of dynamic characteristics. The map of stationary conditional probability of strong earthquake was created including stationary prognostic sign «Presence of faults in the cell» for Kamchatka with values 0.01 (in the cells with no faults) and 0.13 (in the cells with faults pre-sent). The next stage of the work will continue to extend the functionality of the algorithm MEE for medium-term forecasting. The final goal of the modernization is to develop a digital problem-oriented system of medium-term earthquake prediction using a set of prognostic features.