Geophysical processes and biosphere: article

MEDIUM-TERM EARTHQUAKE FORECAST METHOD «MAP OF EXPECTED EARTHQUAKES» (MEE): PROCESSING AND ANALYSIS OF INITIAL DATA
A.D. Zavyalov A.N. Morozov I.M. Aleshin S.D. Ivanov K.I. Kholodkov V.A. Pavlenko
Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences
Journal: Geophysical processes and biosphere
Tome: 22
Number: 1
Year: 2023
Pages: 5-16
UDK: 550.34
DOI: 10.21455/GPB2023.1-1
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Keywords: earthquake, medium-term earthquake forecast, precursors, map of expected earthquakes, MEE, seismic hazard.
Аnnotation: This article is the second in a series of articles devoted to the modification of the «Map of expected earthquakes» (MEE) method of medium-term earthquake forecasting. The description of algorithms for preparation and analysis of initial data and the results of their application are presented in the article. In particular, the following additional functional capabilities have been realized: 1) creation of various computational grids for further spatial and temporal scanning of the earthquake catalog within the analyzed seismic active region; 2) declustering of earthquake catalogs and evaluation of representative values of energy classes (magnitudes) in space and time; 3) evaluation of time interval length for calculation of the background parameters of prognostic features. The overall result of successful scientific and technical work will be the creation of an upgraded method for medium-term earthquake prediction, taking into account the spatial distribution of earthquake sources, integrated use of physically based earthquake precursors, the results of seismic zoning in the form of LDF-model and other related areas of research.