Geophysical processes and biosphere: article

Аnnotation: The paper has for its goal the updating of the information content of the Automated Information Management System of the Russian Unified Emergency Prevention and Response in order to increase the reliability of the results of seismic risk assessment and ensure the safety of the population in earthquake prone areas of the Russia Federation. The study area is the Stavropol Krai, where according to review and detailed seismic zoning the possible source zones with Мmax = 5.0, 5.5, Мmax = 6 and Мmax = 7 were identified. The relevance of this study follows from the activation of seismicity in recent years on the considered area according to the registration by the Geophysical Survey RAS network of seismic events within a wide range of magnitudes with М ≥ 1. Scientific novelty is due to the fact that for the first time in the study of a single region the results of all stages of the study are presented. Estimates of seismic hazard and parameters of the seismic intensity attenuation equation are refined on the basis of the analysis of moderate events with magnitudes in the range of M = 3.3–4.5 from the beginning of the last century to the present, the seismic risk indicators and possible consequences of scenario events for the most hazardous possible source zones are computed. For the first time, we did a joint analysis of all obtained variables. Methods of computer simulation were used to assess the risk parameters along with the «Extremum» GIS developed with the participation of the authors of this article. Estimates of possible damage due to scenario earthquakes with M = 6.0 and M = 5.0 for separate large cities of the Stavropol Krai territory were obtained.